Monsoon is likely to be 96 per cent of the long period average
The weather office has issued a forecast of heavy to very heavy rains at isolated places in several districts of Gujarat over the next one week.
Delhi is likely to receive the first monsoon showers on June 30 or July 1, India Meteorological Department (IMD) officials said on Tuesday.
As weather patterns grow more unpredictable due to climate crisis, India is taking a giant leap with "Mission Mausam" to improve weather understanding and forecasting through expanded observation networks, better modeling and advanced tools like AI and machine learning.
The IMD, in its onset date forecast on May 15, had said the monsoon is likely to hit the southern state on June 5, four days after its normal arrival.
Weather scientists attribute the early onset of southwest monsoon over Kerala to the influence of the remnants of cyclone Asani that triggered the cross-equatorial flow, a key factor for the seasonal rains.
The IMD had initially predicted that Cyclone Nivar was likely to intensify into a 'severe cyclonic storm' but has now estimated that it will intensify further.
The city went under cloud cover and witnessed incessant rainfall from afternoon, with parts of the city witnessing heavy rains and thunderstorms, civic officials said.
The weather department said its latest model analysis had indicated that the moist easterly winds in the lower level from the Bay of Bengal would spread to northwest India, covering Punjab and Haryana by July 10, leading to the advancement of monsoon and an increase in rainfall activity over the region, including Delhi, from July 10 onwards.
The mean minimum temperature for November was 9.6 degree Celsius in 1938; nine degree Celsius in 1931 and 8.9 degree Celsius in 1930, according to IMD data. Normally, the mean minimum temperature for the month of November is 12.9 degree Celsius.
"This year, the Southwest Monsoon is likely to set over Kerala on May 31 with a model error of four days," the India meteorological department said on Wednesday.
The IMD issued a 'red alert' for Pune district and asked people to take precautions.
The city's 24-hour Air Quality Index, recorded at 4 pm every day, stood at 418, up from 334 the previous day, and it may trigger stringent restrictions under the third stage of the graded response action plan to mitigate hazardous conditions.
Widespread rains lashed parts of Tamil Nadu on Thursday, prompting authorities to declare a holiday for schools in Chennai and many other districts.
The weather system moved west-northwestward and concentrated into a depression on Saturday at 8.30am, close to west of Andaman Islands, the bulletin said.
Above-normal heatwave days are predicted in most parts of central, east and northwest India during this period.
As the heavy rains continued on Wednesday also, Orange alert was sounded in 12 of the 14 districts of the state for the day.
Very light rains and thundershowers occurred at isolated places in Uttar Pradesh though, and a fresh warning of heavy showers was issued in Himachal Pradesh as the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely in several parts of the country, including the northern region, over the next six-seven days.
Usually, the annual monsoon forecast is released around mid-April.
The Mungeshpur weather station recorded a high of 48.8 degrees Celsius, eight notches above the normal. It recorded a minimum temperature of 27.6 degrees Celsius, a notch above the season's average.
Data released by the IMD on Thursday showed that the mean minimum temperature (MMT) this December was 7.1 degrees Celsius.
El Nino is expected to occur in August-September, but it is unlikely to have any major impact on the monsoon, and the weatherman expects a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, which has a strong influence on rainfall in the country.
On May 15, the weather office had announced the onset of monsoon over Kerala by May 31.
All parts except Northeast may get below-normal rain; govt reiterates assurance on preparations.
West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee on Friday said that one person died in the state in cyclone Dana, even as the administration evacuated around 2.16 lakh people from the low-lying areas.
The IMD DG said there should not be an impression that climate change leads to rise in the temperature, but on the contrary, it leads to erratic weather.
This should augur well for the rabi crops as delayed withdrawal will leave enough moisture in the soil for early sowing.
The local train traffic on the Central and Western Railway routes was mostly normal though the trains were running a few minutes late, railway officials said.
The India meteorological department predicted mainly clear skies with heatwave conditions in many parts of Delhi and severe heat wave conditions in other areas.
'It is the most prone month for the development of cyclones in the pre-monsoon period.'
'Very severe cyclonic storm Biparjoy at 2330 hrs IST of 9th June over east-central Arabian Sea near lat 16.0N & long 67.4E. Likely to intensify further & move north-northeastwards during the next 24hrs,' the IMD said in a tweet.
The IMD projects total rainfall in the June-September monsoon season as being 99 per cent of the long-period average.
Gross Value Added (GVA) growth in agriculture and allied activities in the first quarter of the 2024-25 financial year (Q1FY25) dipped to 2.7 per cent at constant prices from 4.2 per cent in Q1FY24 due to a drop in output of some crops following heatwave in the main growing months. Low post-monsoon rains, which dried most of the reservoirs in several states across the country, also impacted the production of many crops. At current prices, the growth was estimated at 8.5 per cent as against 4.1 per cent in Q1FY24 due to a spike in food inflation during the April to June months of FY25.
India has roped in almost all the world's major weather forecasters in its effort to accurately forecast monsoon rains in the next four years.
The bounteous monsoon this year has already dumped 1159.4 mm of rainfall in Delhi till Thursday afternoon, the highest since 1964 and the third-highest ever, according to the IMD data
The IMD dispelled fears by forecasting a normal monsoon for June-September. Rainfall is expected to be 98 per cent of the long period average, significantly higher compared to last year's 77 per cent LPA.
Western Railway stated that local train services were running normally on Monday morning, however, commuters claimed trains were running late by 5 to 10 minutes.
IMD will present its month-wise and region-wise forecast in June.
Anything between 96-104 per cent of the LPA is considered as normal rainfall while precipitation in the range of 104-110 per cent is termed 'above normal'
There is a definite attempt to put the landslides on the backburner because news of them and climate change worry Wayanad's tourism and real estate businesses greatly. Whatever I experienced of Wayanad's 2024 by-elections; the July landslides were not a burning issue, observes Shyam G Menon.
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